TY - JOUR
T1 - Accelerating electric vehicle uptake
T2 - modelling public policy options on prices and infrastructure
AU - Broadbent, Gail Helen
AU - Allen, Cameron Ian
AU - Wiedmann, Thomas
AU - Metternicht, Graciela Isabel
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported with interdisciplinary seed funding from the Digital Grids Futures Institute at UNSW Sydney, Australia (Grant Number PS62035-DGSF). We would like to acknowledge technical development and advice provided on the iSDG-Australia model by Dr Matteo Pedercini from the Millennium Institute; and data gathering assistance from Alysson Lucas.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2022/8
Y1 - 2022/8
N2 - Transitioning to passenger battery electric vehicles (BEV) can mitigate climate change impacts of road transportation. We develop a novel BEV policy model, nesting it within a national-scale macroeconomic system dynamics model (iSDG-Australia) to simulate a suite of policy pathways. We model combinations of infrastructure support and subsidies, which bring forward the price-parity tipping point, thus rapidly accelerating BEVs’ share of new car sales. However, ongoing complementary charging infrastructure investment is critical to reach 100% new BEV car sales by 2050 in Australia. Even with a rapid transition, the modelled fleet would not achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 due to vehicle longevity; and suddenly ceasing financial incentives could retard BEV sales by a decade. Based on our assumptions, results suggest emissions reductions are maximised by the fastest transition of the passenger vehicle fleet to BEVs, entailing government policy support from 2020 to 2050, for both adequate infrastructure deployment (AUD17.9b) and vehicle rebates (AUD19.5b), which achieves earlier BEV price-parity with fossil-fuelled vehicles.
AB - Transitioning to passenger battery electric vehicles (BEV) can mitigate climate change impacts of road transportation. We develop a novel BEV policy model, nesting it within a national-scale macroeconomic system dynamics model (iSDG-Australia) to simulate a suite of policy pathways. We model combinations of infrastructure support and subsidies, which bring forward the price-parity tipping point, thus rapidly accelerating BEVs’ share of new car sales. However, ongoing complementary charging infrastructure investment is critical to reach 100% new BEV car sales by 2050 in Australia. Even with a rapid transition, the modelled fleet would not achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 due to vehicle longevity; and suddenly ceasing financial incentives could retard BEV sales by a decade. Based on our assumptions, results suggest emissions reductions are maximised by the fastest transition of the passenger vehicle fleet to BEVs, entailing government policy support from 2020 to 2050, for both adequate infrastructure deployment (AUD17.9b) and vehicle rebates (AUD19.5b), which achieves earlier BEV price-parity with fossil-fuelled vehicles.
KW - Electric vehicle
KW - Modelling
KW - Public policy
KW - Road transport
KW - Socio-technical transition
KW - Sustainability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85131751597&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.012
DO - 10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.012
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85131751597
SN - 0965-8564
VL - 162
SP - 155
EP - 174
JO - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
JF - Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
ER -
