Accelerating electric vehicle uptake: modelling public policy options on prices and infrastructure

Gail Helen Broadbent, Cameron Ian Allen, Thomas Wiedmann, Graciela Isabel Metternicht

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Transitioning to passenger battery electric vehicles (BEV) can mitigate climate change impacts of road transportation. We develop a novel BEV policy model, nesting it within a national-scale macroeconomic system dynamics model (iSDG-Australia) to simulate a suite of policy pathways. We model combinations of infrastructure support and subsidies, which bring forward the price-parity tipping point, thus rapidly accelerating BEVs’ share of new car sales. However, ongoing complementary charging infrastructure investment is critical to reach 100% new BEV car sales by 2050 in Australia. Even with a rapid transition, the modelled fleet would not achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 due to vehicle longevity; and suddenly ceasing financial incentives could retard BEV sales by a decade. Based on our assumptions, results suggest emissions reductions are maximised by the fastest transition of the passenger vehicle fleet to BEVs, entailing government policy support from 2020 to 2050, for both adequate infrastructure deployment (AUD17.9b) and vehicle rebates (AUD19.5b), which achieves earlier BEV price-parity with fossil-fuelled vehicles.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)155-174
Number of pages20
JournalTransportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Volume162
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2022

Keywords

  • Electric vehicle
  • Modelling
  • Public policy
  • Road transport
  • Socio-technical transition
  • Sustainability

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