A new cost-profit model for measuring the optimal scale of China’s foreign exchange reserve

The fast increase of foreign exchange reserve in developing countries has raised a number of important financial questions in recent years. The analysis of the optimal scale of the foreign exchange reserve can provide important indicator to measure the strength and stability of country’s financial standing. In this work we propose a cost-profit model and use the financial data during 2000 to 2008 to analyze the optimal scale of China’s foreign exchange reserve. We identify a number of financial factors to measure the cost and profit of holding the reserves. Our prediction suggested that China’s foreign exchange reserves were still within the moderate range in 1999–2001. However, during 2002–2008 the foreign exchange reserve began to exceed the appropriate scale, and this upward trend was accelerated each year.