A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Francesco Sera, Yuming Guo, Yeonseung Chung, Katherine Arbuthnott, Shilu Tong, Aurelio Tobias, Eric Lavigne, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Ben Armstrong & 1 others Antonio Gasparrini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. Methods Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985–2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. Results Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45–1.66% to 0.15–0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57–15.43% to 2.16–8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. Conclusions Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

LanguageEnglish
Pages239-246
Number of pages8
JournalEnvironment International
Volume111
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Feb 2018

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Climate change
  • Cold
  • Heat
  • Mortality

Cite this

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Sera, F., Guo, Y., Chung, Y., Arbuthnott, K., Tong, S., ... Gasparrini, A. (2018). A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. Environment International, 111, 239-246. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. ; Sera, Francesco ; Guo, Yuming ; Chung, Yeonseung ; Arbuthnott, Katherine ; Tong, Shilu ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Lavigne, Eric ; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline ; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo ; Goodman, Patrick G. ; Zeka, Ariana ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Kim, Ho ; Ragettli, Martina S. ; Röösli, Martin ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel ; Armstrong, Ben ; Gasparrini, Antonio. / A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. In: Environment International. 2018 ; Vol. 111. pp. 239-246
@article{262445b5ef5843ee97e846bcc654bb00,
title = "A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate",
abstract = "Background Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. Methods Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985–2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. Results Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45–1.66{\%} to 0.15–0.93{\%}, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57–15.43{\%} to 2.16–8.91{\%}), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. Conclusions Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.",
keywords = "Adaptation, Climate change, Cold, Heat, Mortality",
author = "Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana M.} and Francesco Sera and Yuming Guo and Yeonseung Chung and Katherine Arbuthnott and Shilu Tong and Aurelio Tobias and Eric Lavigne and {de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho}, Micheline and {Hilario Nascimento Saldiva}, Paulo and Goodman, {Patrick G.} and Ariana Zeka and Masahiro Hashizume and Yasushi Honda and Ho Kim and Ragettli, {Martina S.} and Martin R{\"o}{\"o}sli and Antonella Zanobetti and Joel Schwartz and Ben Armstrong and Antonio Gasparrini",
year = "2018",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006",
language = "English",
volume = "111",
pages = "239--246",
journal = "Environmental International",
issn = "0160-4120",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Sera, F, Guo, Y, Chung, Y, Arbuthnott, K, Tong, S, Tobias, A, Lavigne, E, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M, Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, P, Goodman, PG, Zeka, A, Hashizume, M, Honda, Y, Kim, H, Ragettli, MS, Röösli, M, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Armstrong, B & Gasparrini, A 2018, 'A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate' Environment International, vol 111, pp. 239-246. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006

A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. / Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.; Sera, Francesco; Guo, Yuming; Chung, Yeonseung; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Tong, Shilu; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Ragettli, Martina S.; Röösli, Martin; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio.

In: Environment International, Vol. 111, 01.02.2018, p. 239-246.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera,Ana M.

AU - Sera,Francesco

AU - Guo,Yuming

AU - Chung,Yeonseung

AU - Arbuthnott,Katherine

AU - Tong,Shilu

AU - Tobias,Aurelio

AU - Lavigne,Eric

AU - de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,Micheline

AU - Hilario Nascimento Saldiva,Paulo

AU - Goodman,Patrick G.

AU - Zeka,Ariana

AU - Hashizume,Masahiro

AU - Honda,Yasushi

AU - Kim,Ho

AU - Ragettli,Martina S.

AU - Röösli,Martin

AU - Zanobetti,Antonella

AU - Schwartz,Joel

AU - Armstrong,Ben

AU - Gasparrini,Antonio

PY - 2018/2/1

Y1 - 2018/2/1

N2 - Background Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. Methods Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985–2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. Results Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45–1.66% to 0.15–0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57–15.43% to 2.16–8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. Conclusions Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

AB - Background Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. Methods Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985–2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. Results Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45–1.66% to 0.15–0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57–15.43% to 2.16–8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. Conclusions Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Climate change

KW - Cold

KW - Heat

KW - Mortality

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85038249814&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006

DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006

M3 - Article

VL - 111

SP - 239

EP - 246

JO - Environmental International

T2 - Environmental International

JF - Environmental International

SN - 0160-4120

ER -

Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Sera F, Guo Y, Chung Y, Arbuthnott K, Tong S et al. A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. Environment International. 2018 Feb 1;111:239-246. Available from, DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006