A modelling approach to antlion (Neuroptera: Myrmeleontidae) distribution patterns

The application of a model modified from Jeffree and Jeffree (1994) for investigating the distribution responses of selected antlion species to a climate change scenario was explored in this study. Modifications include a multivariate capability that facilitates the incorporation of precipitation seasonality, and provides useful output in the form of probability of occurrence values for each species. The model can be used to interpolate the distributions of poorly sampled taxa as well as predict responses to a changing climate. It is predicted that species from the more arid western parts of South Africa will be subject to severe range contraction and range shifts whereas the species from the more mesic eastern parts will experience range contraction with limited range shift. The likelihood of successful range shifts will be affected by the nature of novel communities, habitat suitability and the degree of land transformation. Given the extent of the predicted spatial responses, conservation planners can no longer afford to ignore future climate impacts on species distribution patterns.