Abstract
Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion: A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e16511 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Journal | PLoS ONE |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2011 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Cite this
}
A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality. / Guo, Yuming; Barnett, Adrian G.; Yu, Weiwei; Pan, Xiaochuan; Ye, Xiaofang; Huang, Cunrui; Tong, Shilu.
In: PLoS ONE, Vol. 6, No. 2, e16511, 2011.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality
AU - Guo, Yuming
AU - Barnett, Adrian G.
AU - Yu, Weiwei
AU - Pan, Xiaochuan
AU - Ye, Xiaofang
AU - Huang, Cunrui
AU - Tong, Shilu
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion: A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.
AB - Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987-2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65-74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion: A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79551627620&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0016511
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0016511
M3 - Article
VL - 6
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 2
M1 - e16511
ER -