A comparative study of Gaussian process machine learning and time series analysis techniques for predicting unemployment rate

Muhammad Naeim Mohd Aris, Shalini Nagaratnam, Nurul Nnadiah Zakaria, Muhammad Fadhirul Anuar Mohd Azami, Muhammad Afiq Ikram Samsudin, Ernee Sazlinayati Othman

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference PaperOtherpeer-review

Abstract

This study explores and compares the capability of Gaussian process machine learning (GPML) with time series analysis techniques, which are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and cubic spline interpolation, in modeling unemployment rate in Malaysia over the period of 1991 to 2022. Six predictive models are developed based on the observations. The predictive performance of each model is quantified using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE). GPML demonstrated the best predictive model, exhibiting minimal MAE and MSE compared to the time series analysis techniques. The statistical analysis also concluded no significant mean difference between the GPML model and the actual observations, implying a robust predictive model in predicting the unemployment rate in Malaysia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2024 16th International Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering (ICCAE)
EditorsAnouck Girard, Haibin Zhu, Marek Ogiela, Zabih Ghassemlooy
Place of PublicationUSA
PublisherIEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages242-246
Number of pages5
Edition1st
ISBN (Electronic)9798350370058
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
EventInternational Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering 2024 - Hybrid, Melbourne, Australia
Duration: 14 Mar 202416 Mar 2024
Conference number: 16th
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10569140/proceeding (Proceedings)
https://www.iccae.org/2024.html (Website)

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Computer and Automation Engineering 2024
Abbreviated titleICCAE 2024
Country/TerritoryAustralia
CityMelbourne
Period14/03/2416/03/24
Internet address

Keywords

  • ARIMA
  • cubic spline interpolation
  • Gaussian process machine learning
  • SARIMA
  • unemployment rate

Cite this