A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China

Jingsong Yuan, Hongmin Yun, Wei Lan, Wei Wang, Sheena G. Sullivan, Shaowei Jia, Alan H. Bittles

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110 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9°C (95% CI, 10.7°C to 23.1°C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms-1 (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms-1). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation ( Y = 218.692 - 0.698 Xt - 2.043 Xh + 2.282 Xw ) was derived to represent the optimal climatic conditions for the 2003 SARS epidemic. Further investigations in other regions are necessary to verify these results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)234-236
Number of pages3
JournalAmerican Journal of Infection Control
Volume34
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2006
Externally publishedYes

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