A Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical analysis of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests

Stefano Peluso, Antonietta Mira, Håvard Rue, Nicholas John Tierney, Claudio Benvenuti, Roberto Cianella, Maria Luce Caputo, Angelo Auricchio

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Abstract

We propose a Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical model for predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs). Risk maps for Ticino, adjusted for demographic covariates, are built for explaining and forecasting the spatial distribution of OHCAs and their temporal dynamics. The occurrence intensity of the OHCA event in each area of interest, and the cardiac risk-based clustering of municipalities are efficiently estimated, through a statistical model that decomposes OHCA intensity into overall intensity, demographic fixed effects, spatially structured and unstructured random effects, time polynomial dependence, and spatiotemporal random effect. In the studied geography, time evolution and dependence on demographic features are robust over different categories of OHCAs, but with variability in their spatial and spatiotemporal structure. Two main OHCA incidence-based clusters of municipalities are identified.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1105-1119
Number of pages15
JournalBiometrical Journal
Volume62
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2020

Keywords

  • cardiac risk map
  • integrated nested Laplace approximation
  • temporal and spatial heterogeneity

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