The macroeconomic effects of global uncertainty

  • Castelnuovo, Efrem (Primary Chief Investigator (PCI))
  • Caggiano, Giovanni (Chief Investigator (CI))

Project: Research

Project Details

Project Description

Uncertainty is a crucial driver of households' and firms' consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. This project aims to propose the first estimation of a global uncertainty index, with the following goals: i) to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations; ii) to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and iii) to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the Project is to provide policymakers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.
Effective start/end date4/05/1731/12/18