Scientific basis for improved climate predictions on seasonal and climate-change timescales.

Re-examine major, long-standing, unresolved scientific issues limiting the effectiveness of seasonal and climate change predictions. The research will determine why the El Nino - Southern Oscillation exhibits only weak predictability in autumn, the influence of sea surface temperature and other factors on the frequency and intensity of Australian-region tropical cyclones, and whether the contribution from the various factors on trends in Australian-region climate and climate impacts can be separated. Improved data and models, and new conceptual approaches, mean that the time is ripe to examine these issues that each have important economic, environmental and social ramifications.