National prediction model (implications for the next National Road Safety Strategy)

Project: Research

Project Details

Project Description

This project will consist of two phases that will support different stages of the strategy development. The first phase will involve modelling of predicted ‘baseline’ of road trauma trends. This modelling will inform target setting for the new national strategy. This baseline modelling should, at a minimum, consider:
* Past trends and future projections in road trauma, with regard to both fatalities and serious injuries;
* Macro level economic, social, demographic, technological and environmental factors with a material impact on road safety, including the impacts of population growth, changes in travel exposure and/or changes in economic circumstances;
* Current planned and future investment in countermeasures and predicted characteristics of the nation’s road network; and
* Relevant outputs from modelling conducted by some jurisdictions in the development of current and planned state level road safety strategies, recognising that jurisdictions have differing road safety programs and have used different modelling approaches.

The baseline period to be modelled should, at a minimum, cover a 10 year future period in order to support 5 year actions plans. The second phase of this project will involve modelling to forecast the benefit of specific, additional high-impact countermeasures and suites of countermeasures over the period of the next strategy. This phase of the project will need to consider:

* The impact of countermeasures and suites of countermeasures on road fatalities and serious injuries and the road system,
* The impact of changes to government policy or any future policy measures that may affect predicted fatalities and serious injuries;
* Consideration of short to medium term disruptions (e.g. technological, economic) that may impact road safety and the likely effect on trauma levels; and
* The ability for the above to be assembled as suites of interventions and disruptors and presented as intervention ‘scenarios’ for consideration by key decision makers.

The period to be modelled should for this phase, at a minimum, cover a 10 year future period in order to support 5 year actions plans. As part of the scope of this second phase, the successful respondent will be required to outline and develop a solution to allow future interaction with both phase one and two modelling. This will require the ability to vary inputs, assumptions and see resulting output effects on trauma levels and scenarios. The ability to interact with the modelling will need to extend over the life of the strategy, with sufficient information provided as to the working of this tool to support end users.
StatusActive
Effective start/end date30/04/208/12/20

Funding

  • Austroads: AUD276,877.69

Keywords

  • road safety
  • road safety strategy
  • modelling
  • road trauma
  • trauma outcomes
  • serious injury
  • fatalities
  • countermeasures