Modelling of the Victorian Road Safety Strategy - Using eMETS (enhanced Macro Estimates for Target Setting) countermeasure and strategy modelling tool.

Project: Research

Project Details

Project Description

MUARC has been undertaking strategy modelling since 2005, when the original METS model was developed for VicRoads as part of the development of the ‘Arrive Alive 2008-2017’ road safety strategy. Since then, METS has been in a process of continuous improvement through being applied across Australia, with comprehensive strategy development being undertaken in Victoria (2005, 2013), Western Australia (2007), the Northern Territory (2010), Queensland (2011) and New South Wales (2011). Furthermore, in 2009 modelling was carried out to provide the evidence base for the National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020. METS was used to help develop the final action plan for the Tasmanian road safety strategy (2010) and for modelling the allocation of substantial road infrastructure funding for the New Zealand Transport Agency (2011).

During 2014-2015, the original METS was completely redeveloped into the much-improved eMETS simulation model as part of preparing detailed serious trauma projections for the current Victorian ‘Towards Zero 2016-2020’ Action Plan. The eMETS model provides a unique way to collate the best-available evidence from all the Safe System cornerstones to estimate and compare savings in fatalities and seriously-injured persons (FSI) savings from a variety of initiatives.

This project addresses a brief from Transport for Victoria to provide modelling services in the development of the next Victorian road safety strategy 2021-2026, as well as estimates for the period 2021-2031 and an assessment of the path to zero fatalities by 2050.
Effective start/end date15/04/1919/07/19


  • Baseline Research Program (BPR) (Monash University): A$99,740.00


  • mathematical modelling
  • road safety
  • road safety authorities
  • road trauma
  • road safety policy
  • serious casualties