Forecast trauma trends for Victoria post 2020

Project: Research

Project Details

Project Description

The TAC has approached the Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC) to undertake expert trauma modelling to forecast estimated trends in fatalities and serious injuries in Victoria for the ten year periods following the completion in 2020 of Victoria’s Towards Zero Road Safety Strategy and Action Plan. Forecasts of fatality and serious injury trends are required to be generated using appropriate statistical modelling techniques to capture trends and take into account the impact of key factors and road safety programs, including:

• On-going impacts of programs such as the Safe System Road Infrastructure Program (SSRIP)
• On-going impacts of vehicle safety improvements, both from improvements in crashworthiness and increasing take-up of driver assistance technologies in the vehicle fleet such as AEB and Lane Keeping technology
• Impacts of population predictions using the best available ranges, and measures of economic influences
• Estimated trauma savings resulting from Victoria’s current Towards Zero Road Safety Strategy Action Plan, modelled by the eMETs project undertaken for the TAC as part of the mid-term review of Towards Zero.
Effective start/end date1/01/1931/03/19


  • road safety
  • public health
  • statistical analysis
  • trauma outcomes
  • serious injuries
  • road safety strategy
  • public policy
  • vehicle safety
  • Safe System Road Infrastructure Program
  • Towards Zero