Beyond the linear dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant mode of natural climate variability that is the key predictable element for seasonal to interannual climate variability. This project will improve the understanding of the dynamics controlling ENSO and how climate change may affect ENSO by analysis of observations, a database of state of the art climate model and most importantly by the development of a new innovative climate model for ENSO studies. It will further analyze key aspects that affect the predictability of ENSO, which will ultimately lead to improvements of the current seasonal climate forecasts for Australia. In particular the role of the tropical Indian and Atlantic ocean on ENSO predictability will be explored.